Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

Things to Consider….

The latest US Cold Storage numbers reported pork stocks at 464.2 million pounds for March, up 6.5m pounds from February however is 69.7m pounds under year-ago levels. Notably, February's cold storage was revised +0.3% higher from 456.5m pounds up to 457.7m pounds.

Most pork categories recorded decreased quantities from the previous month - most notably butts, unclassified pork and loins - however these overall reductions were offset by a significant rise in belly stocks and a moderate rise in spare-ribs. 

Pork bellies were again up the most in the latest stocks, rising 11.4m pounds from February though is 1.9m pounds under last year. Spare-ribs rose 2.8m pounds in March though are notably 20.7m pounds under year-ago supplies, while variety meats increased 872 thousand pounds on the month and is 4.4m pounds over last year (the only pork category to reflect higher year-over-year stocks). 

Pork butts dropped 2.9m pounds in the latest data and is 4.8m pounds under year-ago supplies, while unclassified pork was down 2.7m pounds and is 3.7m pounds under a year earlier. Total loins fell 2.0m pounds in March on decreased boneless loin stocks while overall loins are down 3.3m pounds from last year primarily due to reduced bone-in loins that are being offset partially by an increase in the boneless variety. Total hams overall in cold storage slipped 322 thousand pounds from February stocks as an increase in boneless hams were offset by the bone-in variety, while current supplies overall are 15.4m pounds under a year earlier. Remaining pork categories such as 'other pork', trimmings and bone-in picnics recorded more moderate moves lower on the month and hold supply quantities under those recorded a year earlier.

  April 30, 2024

Weekly Hog Price Recap

Cash hogs improved much of the week however did report some mid-week declines to temper rises other days, while regional cash went unreported Friday. CME cash declined overall however managed to average modestly above the previous week. Wholesale pork primal values were mixed, though significantly lower bellies and hams weighed US pork cutout $2.35/cwt under the previous week's average.

Monitored Canadian hog markets varied on the week, with those derived from lagged base pricing notably higher while those including pork cutout components were generally lower. BP4/TC4 hogs jumped $9.35/hog, while the OlyW 20 strengthened $4.75/hog and the OlyW 21 rose $3.80/hog. The ML Sig 4 was generally stable, up a modest $0.10/hog, while hogs out of Ontario fell $1.50/hog, Hylife was down $1.75/hog and hogs out of Quebec fell $3/hog from the previous week. In the US, Tyson hogs improved near $3/hog while JM hog values strengthened $3.50/hog from a week earlier.
 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins weakened overall as many markets reported decreased hog values in addition to a rise in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs climbed $1/hog, while those in the monitored US region increased closer to $1.15/hog from the week previous.

OlyW 20 hog margins strengthened $3.80 to shy of $46/hog profits, followed by those out of Ontario which weakened $2.45 to $45.50/hog profits on the week and ML Sig 4 margins which slipped $0.85 to $43/hog profits. Hylife margins weakened $2.75 to $37.10/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins strengthened $2.85 to nearly $32/hog profits and margins out of Quebec weakened $4 to $29.10/hog profits. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $2 to $52/hog profits while JM margins strengthened $2.35 to $47.10/hog profits for the week.
 

US Regional Margins

• Tyson: $51.93 USD X 1.3691 = $71.10 in Canadian Dollars
• Morrell: $47.11 USD X 1.3691 = $64.50 in Canadian Dollars    

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.