Market Commentary: Thursday, August 18/22

Transcript

Hog futures are trading substantially lower at midday, driven in large part by weak export sales. Pork net sales were down 37% from the previous week and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. At this point, it seems like traders are more interested in working the complex lower after running it to contract highs last week. It's unlikely that the market sees much support arise before today's end, as the cash market will likely close lower and pork cutout values are likely to see pressure as well. 

Cash hog prices on the National morning report are lower, the morning cutout value is little changed. 

The Canadian Dollar is trading lower against the US dollar at midday. 

For the week ending Aug 19, the Western Hog Exchange OlyWest 20 weekly price is $2.81/kg dressed, the OlyWest 21 weekly price is $2.79/kg dressed, and the BP4 price is $2.69/kg dressed. This is Kerrie Simpson reporting from the Western Hog Exchange

Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Things to Consider….

Over the last month lean hog futures have given producers something to look forward to, as remaining 2022 and early 2023 contracts returned to annual highs.  With August expiry just days away, October will assume the lead month position and although it carries a steep $22 US per cwt discount to August, it traded to a new high this week topping $100.95 US per cwt, a price not seen since March 31, 2022, when it traded at $100.85.

A key factor to consider in the current rally is the level of open interest traded in lean hogs since mid-June.     Open interest represents the number of contracts open at a specific point in time (in this case weekly), not to be confused with trade volume which is the number of trades that are completed for a specific contract on a given day or week.  As an example, the same contract could be traded 10 times in a day which would mean open interest would be 1, trade volume would be 10.

Open interest is an indication of “interest” in a specific commodity.  When open interest rises, it typically means there are more individuals seeking to participate in the commodity.  In the graph shown above, it appears the interest is on the buying side from the large specs.  The Commitment of Trader’s graph illustrates that the net long position for the large spec had dwindled from February to May alongside a crashing open interest number, however since May both open interest and the net long position for large specs have risen.  

As of this week speculative buying appears to continue providing the underlying support. Producers now need to decide when a good time may be to pull the trigger on selling a portion of their 2022 and 2023 production.  Contract highs are providing a profitable hedge value for most Canadian hog producers and should be considered for those who currently do not have any previous protection or for producers looking to extend coverage for the end of the year.

Although further upside is expected likely for another week or 2, the current rally will eventually see selling pressure as packer margins again reverted to negative levels with firm cash colliding with a stable pork complex.   

  August 9, 2022



Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs varied as rises early on offset later declines, with Tuesday and Wednesday especially higher. Alternatively, CME cash improved more moderately with declines recorded mid-week. Wholesale pork primal values were mixed however heavier declines in butts and ribs weighed US pork cutout $0.69/cwt under the previous week's average.



Canadian market hog values improved generally $4-$6 per hog on the week. The OlyW 21 rose $6.80/hog, while the OlyW 20 was up $5.85/hog and BP/TC improved $4.85/hog. The ML Sig 4 rose $6.10/hog, followed by hog values out of Quebec were up $5.35/hog. Hog values out of Hylife improved $4.60/hog while those out of Ontario were up $3.60/hog. In the US, Tyson slipped $0.65/hog lower while JM rose $4.80/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins strengthened on strongly improved hog values and a pullback in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs declined $0.70/hog, while those in the monitored US region slipped $0.20/hog from the week previous.
 
 Hog margins out the OlyW20 strengthened $6.55 to $109/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which improved $4.30 to shy of $103/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 strengthened $6.80 to $85.50/hog profits and Hylife margins were up $5.30 to $80.85/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins strengthened $7.50 to $78.10/hog profits and those out of Quebec improved $6 to $61.20/hog profits. In the US, Tyson margins weakened $0.45 to $107.55/hog profits while JM strengthened $5 to $109.05/hog profits from the previous week.
 
US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 107.54 USD X 1.2874 = $ 138.45 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 109.05 USD X 1.2874 = $ 140.39 in Canadian Dollars



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.





Weekly Regional HOG PRICE Report

 

Things to Consider….

   The latest US livestock and meat trade data reflected total US pork exports at 531.1 million pounds for June, down 17.6 million pounds from May levels and 32.7 million pounds under last year.

     Most major destinations for US pork generally recorded declined volume on the report. US pork to Mexico recorded the largest drop, down 14.7 million pounds from May and reached a new historical high for the month of June historically. US pork to Japan fell 4.1 million pounds, and though continuing below many recent historical years for this time has returned to more typical levels. US pork to the Dominican Republic dropped 3.5 million pounds or -13.9% for June, coming down from the strong historical highs recorded in the previous two reports though continuing at highs well above typical levels and nearly double the volume of last year. Other destinations for US pork such as South Korea, Australia and Canada each recorded 1-2 million pounds declines from last reported.

     Offsetting some of the earlier mentioned declines were increased amounts to Colombia and China*. US pork to Colombia rose 3.7 million pounds and is among the strongest recorded historically, while China* (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) increased 3.6 million pounds from last reported. Other notable destinations recorded generally 1-1.6 million pound declines such as the Philippines, Guatemala, and Chile which continues among 10-year lows.

     Total US pork imports slipped 2.1 million pounds or –1.7% lower than May, bringing current imports 23.0 million pounds or +24.2% above year ago levels. Imports from Canada declined 1.7 million pounds or -2.3% for June, bringing them 15.3 million pounds or +27.3 over year ago levels. Notably, the US imported 32.3 million pounds more pork from Canada than it exported to the country for the month of June. US pork imports from Denmark fell 4.5 million pounds or –36% from a month earlier though are +10.3% over last year, while volume from Mexico declined 1.6 million pounds or -15.9% in June but is +12.1% over last year. Increased imports from Brazil, Italy and Hungary offset some of the lessened amounts, with each generally up 1-2 million pounds from last reported.

  August 2, 2022



Weekly Hog Price Recap

Regional and national cash hogs varied though declined for much of the week, with late-week declines particularly heavy while mid-week gains were also significant. Alternatively, CME cash improved daily at good to moderate levels. Wholesale pork primal values were mixed throughout the week with bellies especially stronger and higher hams and picnics helped US pork cutout finish the week $3.28/cwt over the previous week's average.



Canadian market hog values again improved significantly this past week, rising as much as $8 per hog. BP/TC rose $8/hog, while hog values out of Ontario were up just shy of $8 and other markets such at the OlyW 21 & 20 and hog values out of Quebec were each up around $7/hog. The ML Sig 4 was up $4.75/hog, while hog values out of Hylife were up $4.50/hog. In the US, Tyson rose $8.20/hog higher while JM slipped near $1/hog from week ago levels. 

Weekly Hog Margins

Monitored Canadian hog margins strengthened on strongly improved hog values despite an increase in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs rose $3.15/hog, while those in the monitored US region were up $2.65/hog from the week previous. 

Hog margins out the OlyW20 improved $3.95 to $102.45/hog profits on the week, followed by those out of Ontario which strengthened $4.75 to $98.60/hog profits. Hog margins out of the ML Sig 4 improved $1.60 to $78.70/hog profits and Hylife margins were up $1.30 to $75.55/hog profits, while OlyW 21 margins strengthened $4.15 to $70.60/hog profits and those out of Quebec improved $3.90 to $55.20/hog profits. In the US, Tyson margins strengthened $5.55 to $108/hog profits while JM weakened $3.60 to $104/hog profits from the previous week.
 

  US Regional Margins

  • Tyson: $ 107.98 USD X 1.2853 = $ 138.79 in Canadian Dollars
  • Morrell: $ 104.05 USD X 1.2853 = $ 133.74 in Canadian Dollars



Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents this report as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes only and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission.  Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any material contained in the publication.