Things to Consider…. The USDA's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was released Thursday, March 25th reporting declines in all categories. All Hogs & Pigs fell 2,539 thousand head from the tally reported in December, bringing the latest inventory 1,406 thousand under March of last year. Kept for Breeding fell 1% or 61 thousand from the figure for December, which is 2.5% or 160 thousand under last year. Market hogs fell 3.5% or 2,478 thousand head from last quarter and sits 1.8% or 1,246 thousand head under last year. The March pig crop declined 1,694 thousand head from previously reported, brining the pig crop 475 thousand head under year ago levels. Pigs per litter slipped below 11 for the first time in 2 years, reported at 10.94 pigs/litter for the Dec-Feb period. Report revisions, as reported by the USDA: All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2020 through December 2020 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the December 2020 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.2 percent. With sow numbers now at a 3-Year low of 6.215 Million the question arises of how quickly the industry will turn around and produce more pounds of pork. With lean hog futures and cash markets at record highs it will only be a matter of time before expansion begins and hog numbers level out. Any increase in the breeding herd during the upcoming summer months will only begin to impact market hogs once in the middle of 2022. For now, hog producers can expect strong base pricing and competitive markets unless a major shift in demand is registered in the short-term. From the supply side, the market has plenty of support, from the demand side, things are positive for now, but have been known to change more drastically then supply. |